三和一善 | 不確実な状況下での意思決定（組織論セミナー８）

 

How to Make Difficult Decisions When Things Get Especially Uncertain

We live in a time of uncertainty. This can make decisions more difficult.

Another impact of the pandemic on work is our ability to make decisions. The process is even more challenging when the outcome is uncertain - we still live with a lot of uncertainty.

 

To better understand how people process decisions when they cannot predict how things will unfold, University researchers Barbara Shum, professor of clinical neuropsychology, and Alex Mason, a doctoral candidate in cognitive neuroscience, conducted an experiment that focused on how the decision-making process works due to Mental health conditions can go wrong.

 

The researchers asked two groups, one consisting of teens with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and the other without OCD, to complete a probabilistic decision-making task, choosing between two images on a screen. One image was programmed to give them points 80% of the time, while the other image only gave them points 20% of the time. Halfway through the task, the reward probability associated with each option reverses.

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The results, published in JAMA Network Open, explore human propensity for two decision-making strategies: exploit or explore. Exploitation involves choosing familiar options and providing greater certainty of rewards, while exploration involves testing unfamiliar options.

 

 "The ideal strategy for this task involves a combination of exploration and exploitation," Mason said. "It's best to take advantage of more valuable options early on, but explore later once you notice a change in how often points are offered."

 

However, adolescents with OCD seemed unable to cope with uncertainty, which led them to over-explore both task options. Compared to teens without OCD, they switched options more frequently and chose less rewarding options. Mason said that while the experiment was conducted in participants with OCD, the findings can be applied to a wider population because a tolerance for uncertainty is necessary to make optimal decisions.

 

"It's not easy because humans are creatures of habit and often don't cope well with uncertainty," she said. "This has been demonstrated in the current global pandemic, where people are overly information-seeking and exhibiting maladaptive behaviors ranging from hoarding toilet paper to deliberately ignoring government-mandated safety advice, and believing and spreading misinformation."

 

Apply findings to your business

Organizations can learn something from this research. First, employees and leaders must be equipped to deal with uncertainty to improve decision-making, Mason said. One way to develop resilience to uncertainty is to better inform employees and ensure that all necessary information is transparent so they can make the best decisions.

 

It's also important to understand when and why people use exploration or exploitation, she said. For example, when people are under greater time pressure, they are more likely to repeat choices and explore less.

 

The outcome of previous decisions also has an impact. People are more likely to explore new options when past experiences are generally beneficial, Mason said. (And vice versa, people stick to what they know if they have had a negative experience.)

 

The best way to make decisions

Both methods have their advantages and disadvantages. "On the one hand, exploration can be very rewarding, because trying new options can potentially give you better benefits and allow you to make better choices in the future," Mason said. "On the other hand, if the new option proves to be inferior, it can be expensive in terms of time, effort and potentially monetary resources."

 

But she added that neither strategy was enough on its own. "Instead, it's important to be able to flexibly switch between using exploratory and exploitative strategies," she said, referring to a recent study on the exploration-exploitation dilemma of foraging. "Foragers should spend more time exploring potential food sources during the summer months when food is plentiful. Then, foragers must use this information in winter when food is scarce."

 

The same logic applies to organizations. "In stable times, businesses should explore new ventures, investments, partnerships and alternative work practices to gather key information and gain potential benefits," Mason said. "In doing so, they will be better able to use the information and benefits gathered earlier to survive in uncertain and turbulent times."